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pp. 993-1006 | Article Number: ijese.2017.067
Published Online: June 17, 2017
Abstract
Predicting temperature is one of the most important phenomena studied in climatology studies that from the user's perspective to many human activities, especially agricultural activities linked. Planning against the dangers of this phenomenon is necessary to studies on forecasting methods and the effects of climate signals on the minimum and maximum temperature taken. Due to limitations such as insufficient data available, low accuracy and high error in Hakol statistical methods in this study using fuzzy inference nervous system and genetic algorithm in MATLAB software boxes used as an efficient method to predict temperature. The model used in this study includes a hidden layer and an output layer, fuzzy system used in this study is Sugeno model. In this method, non-linear relationships between variables are assumed. In this study, we tried to predict the minimum and maximum temperatures in the city of Khorramabad (using the variables of sunshine, and climate signals) are necessary. For this purpose, the capabilities of fuzzy neural network and genetic algorithm were used to make the prediction. Monthly and daily statistical model inputs of signals in the area of climate and sunshine period (2014-2008) and output data minimum and maximum temperature. The neuro-fuzzy model, in the period (2014-2008) in estimating the minimum was trained and the maximum temperature is conducted using a genetic algorithm in 945 years. The results indicate that the fuzzy neural network with genetic algorithm capable of more and high accuracy to predict the minimum and maximum daily temperature and monthly than usual statistical methods as temperatures with reasonable accuracy predict with a confidence level of 90%.
Keywords: predicting temperature (minimum, maximum), fuzzy neural networks, genetic algorithms
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